As it stands, Gingrich is pulling onto the lead, not because anybody likes him, but because he’s not Romney and he hasn’t collapsed yet. (Though this Freddie Mac thing might sink him.) If Gingrich survives another week, he’s probably good through the holiday and will have support as people start voting.
Here’s how I see it going down:
Somebody (not Romney) wins Iowa. Romney wins New Hampshire. Then somebody (Not Romney) wins South Carolina. And suddenly we’ve got Romney vs. Not Romney all the way to the convention. And, since Paul will stay in, neither gets more than 5%.